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Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart Click here to download Flash Player now See all Bulls Reasons Bulls: Reasons To Buy Spinoff opportunity 100% agree Spinoff opportunity Sprint's mobile devices segment could potentially be bought out or spun off as an independently operating entity, freeing up the positive revenue growth of the other segements. A Nextel spin (or semi-spin into a JV, similar to the Clearwire structure), if it happens, will be... read more View or Edit Reason 4 votes 100% agree iDEN capacity constraints to be resolved 100% agree iDEN capacity constraints to be resolved Sprint expects iDEN capacity constraints to be resolved and to return to positive post-paid subscriber additions in 2Q07. CEO Dan Hesse's 1Q statements supporting iDEN, add more to the credibility that: a) iDEN will not be shut down, b) iDEN customers will have a broadband... read more View or Edit Reason 2 votes 100% agree ARPU at 56$ 100% agree ARPU at 56$ It's the highest among the major carriers (VZ: $51.40, AT&T: $50.18, T-Mobile: $55, Alltel: $53.64) and is testimony to the strength of CDMA data ARPU, which is $14. View or Edit Reason 2 votes 100% agree Add your own Bulls Reason See all Bears Reasons Bears: Reasons To Sell Weak customer base that is leaving in droves 80% agree Weak customer base that is leaving in droves Sprint has a weak customer base being run out of the company because of terrible customer service. In addition, the existing customer base is exposed to a potentially slowing economy, which would only increase the rate of defection from Sprint. The churn and customer... read more View or Edit Reason 5 votes 80% agree Sprint Nextel turnaround less likely 100% agree Sprint Nextel turnaround less likely Sprint Nextel management issued weak 2007 guidance reflecting lower ARPUs and increased spending to stabilize market share. Moreover, Sprint Nextel (S) continues to look for partners to share the cost of the WiMAX rollout, which will undoubtedly cost several billion dollars,... read more View or Edit Reason 2 votes 100% agree Sprint Nextel feeling the pain 66% agree Sprint Nextel feeling the pain Sprint (S) recently reported a worse than expected loss of a half-billion dollars. To top it off, they've lost 1 million customers since the end of 2007. Here at ChangeWave, our surveys have been tracking Sprint's long, steady decline for almost two years. Looking at our... read more View or Edit Reason 3 votes 66% agree Add your own Bears Reason Send the authors a comment or suggestion Be the first to make a suggestion See All Suggestions

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The most prominent problem has been the high rate of subscriber losses from Nextel’s iDEN network. Sprint has focused the majority of its resources to further its CDMA network and has largely neglected iDEN, and as a result Sprint lost 2.8M iDEN post paid customers in 2007.^[4] The once high growth, high-spending customer base of the old Nextel network has had new subscriber rates drop 50% since the merger.^[5] According to Larry Dignan at ZDNet, Sprint’s terrible customer service record over the past two years, including dropping subscribers that called customer service too often and dropping soldiers because of too much roaming, is one of the primary reasons for this mass customer defection.^[6] In addition, an ineffective marketing campaign after the merger has failed to bring enough new additions to make up for those losses.^[7]

Sprint made a large investment in WiMAX, a 4G technology, when it contributed $5B to a joint venture with Clearwire, Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Bright House, Intel, Trilogy Equity Partners, and Google. Clearwire will help Sprint build a WiMAX network covering 140M people by 2010. The investment in WiMAX is a departure from the major competitors, AT&T and Verizon, who are making their reach into 4G through a technology called Long Term Evolution. However, Sprint’s WiMAX network is well ahead of any 4G network by AT&T and Verizon with the earliest plans expected to come in 2010 or 2011. In addition, this investment in WiMAX enhances a competitive difference Sprint has from its major competitors as it is not tied to a local fixed line phone company, and can look to form strategic partnerships with the cable companies. In the joint venture with Comcast and Time Warner Cable, they will be using the WiMax network provided by Clearwire and Sprint.

[edit] History

On December 15, 2004, Sprint and Nextel announced they would merge to form Sprint Nextel Corporation. While billed as a merger of equals, the transaction was actually the purchase of Nextel Communications by Sprint Corporation. At the time of the merger announcement Sprint and Nextel were the third and fifth largest wireless providers in the US mobile phone industry, respectively.

Sprint shareholders overwhelmingly approved the merger on July 13, 2005. However, Sprint and Nextel also faced some opposition to the merger - mostly from regional affiliates that provide wireless services on behalf of the companies. These regional affiliates felt that the new company would be violating non-compete agreements that the former companies had made with the affiliates. The merger deal was finally approved by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and US Department of Justice on August 3, 2005. The FCC placed a condition on the merger that Sprint Nextel is to provide wireless service within the 2.5 GHz band within the next four years.

[edit] Company Overview and Financials

Sprint Nextel offers a wide array of wireless mobile telephone and wireless data transmission services on networks that utilize CDMA and iDEN technologies. In addition, it provides a broad suite of wireline voice and data communications services targeted to domestic business customers, multinational corporations and other communications companies.

For 3Q 2008, Sprint’s revenues fell 12 percent to $8.8 billion when compared to 3Q 2007.^[8] When summing all three quarters, revenue fell 10 percent, from $30.2 billion in 2007 to $27.2 billion.^[8] It had a net loss of $326 million during 3Q 2008, and an accumulated net loss for all three quarters of $1.175 billion.^[8] These losses are due to losses in subscribers. During 3Q 2008, subscribership fell 1.3 million to 50.5 million.^[9]

[edit] Products and Services

Sprint Nextel currently offers wireless phone services under its Sprint PCS and Nextel brands. It is also a provider of landline, long distance, and business telecommunications, as well as Internet service under the name SprintLink. The revenue split for 2007 between these businesses is shown in below figure.

Source: Sprint Nextel 2007 Earnings Report

[edit] Wireless (Revenue: $32,105M, Net Income: $9,914M)

The wireless mobile voice communication services of Sprint Nextel include a variety of basic local and long distance wireless voice services. Through a variety of roaming arrangements, the company also provides roaming services to areas in numerous countries outside the United States. Data communication services include wireless imaging, internet access and e-mail services, entertainment such as live radio and television, and location-based capabilities including dispatch services and navigation tools. These services are provided using a wide variety of handsets and personal computer wireless data cards manufactured by various suppliers. These devices are generally sold at prices below cost in response to competition, to attract new customers and as retention inducements for existing customers.

In addition, Sprint Nextel offers wholesale services on its network to resellers, commonly known as mobile virtual network operators, or MVNOs. MVNOs purchase wireless services from Sprint Nextel at wholesale rates and resell the services to their customers under their own brand names. Under these MVNO arrangements, the operators bear the costs of acquisition, billing and customer service. The company currently provides wholesale services, through multi-year, wholesale agreements, to a number of MVNOs, including Embarq, Movida Communications, Inc., Virgin Mobile, CBeyond, Liberty Wireless, Airline Mobile, and Tracfone.

[edit] Wireline (Revenue: $6,463M, Net Income: $1,074M)

Through the long distance segment, Sprint Nextel provides a broad suite of wireline voice and data communications services, including domestic and international data communications. Wireline is simply the wired connection between the customer and the phone companies circuits. Sprint also provides services to cable operators that resell the long distance service in support of their telephone service provided over cable facilities primarily to residential end user customers. Although Sprint Nextel continues to provide voice services to residential consumers, it no longer actively markets those services.

[edit] Network Infrastructure

Network infrastructure is fundamental to any mobile operator in order to provide mobile services. The mobile network enables customers to place and receive voice calls and allows the wireless carrier to provide other services, such as text messaging. Sprint Nextel offers its services over a CDMA network for Sprint-branded services and over a iDEN network for Nextel-branded services.

[edit] CDMA Network

Sprint-branded and wholesale wireless services are provided over a CDMA network, an all-digital wireless network with spectrum licenses that allow services in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The CDMA network uses a single frequency band and a digital spread-spectrum wireless technology that allows a large number of users to access the band by assigning a code to all voice and data bits, sending a scrambled transmission of the encoded bits over the air and reassembling the voice and data into its original format.

[edit] iDEN Network

Nextel-branded wireless services are provided over an iDEN network, an all-digital packet data network based on iDEN wireless technology provided by Motorola. Sprint Nextel is the only national wireless service provider in the United States that utilizes iDEN technology, and iDEN handsets are generally not enabled to roam onto wireless networks that do not utilize iDEN technology. The iDEN network provides a walkie-talkie like service under the Boost Mobile brand name.

Unlike other wireless technologies, iDEN is a proprietary technology that relies principally on Sprint Nextel's and Motorola’s efforts for further research, product development and innovation. Sprint Nextel relies on Motorola to provide it with technology improvements designed to expand its iDEN-based wireless services, including improvements designed to increase voice capacity and improved iDEN-based services. Motorola provides substantially all of the iDEN infrastructure equipment used in Sprint Nextel's iDEN network, and substantially all iDEN handset devices.

The acquisition of Nextel has given Sprint access to communications towers erected for use in connection with the Nextel iDEN network, which enables Sprint to install CDMA cell site equipment on these towers, instead of erecting new towers or installing the equipment on towers owned by third parties, which reduces the company's costs. Similarly, Nextel is able to install iDEN cell site equipment on the CDMA communications towers.

[edit] Trends and Forces

[edit] Slow Growth in a Maturing Market

^[11]

Revenues from voice traffic for a wireless carrier are driven by its number of subscribers and the average revenue generated per customer (ARPU. In the US, wireless subscriber growth is slowing as market penetration comes close to reaching 100%. With a penetration reaching 100%, the market is clearly maturing and delivering lower growth as a result. This is illustrated by below graph, showing the incremental penetration is decreasing quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year while overall US market penetration peaked at 77.4% at the end of 2006. It is at 75.2% as of May, 2008.^[12]

[edit] Pricing Pressure Hurting ARPU

^[13]

Revenues from voice traffic for a wireless carrier are driven by its number of subscribers and the average revenue generated per customer. The average revenue is expressed by the industry as Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) which quantifies the average monthly revenue any customer is generating. Pricing competition leads to declining average voice revenue per subscriber, as both Sprint Nextel and its competitors offer more competitive service pricing plans. These competitive plans not only include lower priced plans, but also plans that include highly attractive additions. This would be plans that allow users to add additional units at better rates, plans with a higher number of bundled minutes included in the fixed monthly charge for the plan, plans that offer the ability to share minutes among a group of related customers, or a combination of these features.

With a slowing subscriber growth, competition will further intensify within an already very competitive market. Sprint Nextel has the highest ARPU when compared to its competitors, but ARPU has been steadily decreasing - from the end of 2006 to the end of 2007, postpaid ARPU has dropped from $60 to $58 and prepaid has dropped from $32 to $28.^[14] Its high ARPU was largely from the high end customers it inherited from the old Nextel network, however subscriber losses has been largest in that category and has contributed to the declining ARPU. One reason for the subscriber losses, is the merger caused huge issues with the once stellar customer service. In addition, the iDEN network's "push-to-talk" capability, which was once very popular to save customers minutes, is now being overlooked as competitors have started offering unlimited calling plans. Sprint was able to charge higher prices for its quality customer service and unique offerings, but as those advantages are fading, Sprint is becoming particularly susceptible to competitors lower priced plans as customers don't want to pay Sprint's higher prices without any of the benefits expected of the premium.

[edit] Subprime Credit Customers are Vulnerable to Economic Slowdown

^[15]

In recent periods, Sprint Nextel has experienced declines in the number of new subscribers for wireless services and increases in the rate of subscriber churn. While it is hard to point to a single set of drivers for this increasing churn rate, there is a general consensus major forces behind the increase include an ineffective marketing campaign following the merger^[16] and high churn rates of profitable post-paid customers from Nextel.^[17]

With profitable post-paid customers leaving Sprint Nextel, a large portion of the remaining customer base is subprime. While the company is in the midst of upgrading its customer base through more stringent credit requirements, it is estimated that 30-35% of Sprint Nextel’s total wireless subscribers could be sub-prime credit quality customers. These customers are particularly vulnerable in a slowing economy, and could drive higher than expected churn rates due to credit-related deactivations.

Losses in subscribers have turned into losses in earnings. During difficult economic times, Sprint’s subscribership fell 1.3 million^[9] during 3Q 2008, resulting in a net loss of $326 million for the quarter^[8]; its post-paid segment fell 1.1 million.^[9] Economic slowdowns, which decrease consumer spending, have a direct effect on Sprint’s earnings.

[edit] Investing in 4G

Sprint has a 3G network offered that covers 234M people^[18], primarily under its "Power Vision" brand name. However, with the 3G network complete, Sprint is now investing in 4G. Sprint has entered into a partnership with Clearwire, Intel, Google, Time Warner, Comcast, Trilogy Equity Partners, and Bright House Networks, to build a 4G WiMax network in the US that covers 140 million people. The Federal Communications Commission approved Sprint’s $14.5 billion deal to merge its WiMax business with Clearwire. WiMax is a fourth generation wireless technology, that is essentially Wi-Fi on steroids. WiMax covers a much larger area than Wi-Fi and offers speeds that are 5x faster than existing wireless networks. Sprint and Clearwire will open their new network to other companies who wish to sell wireless devices, spurring more competition.^[19] The new company will receive about $3.2 billion^[20] from strategic investors such as Intel, Google, Time Warner Cable, Comcast, and Bright House Networks whom will aquire about 22% of the company.^[21] In an effort to expand the WiMax network, Sprint, Clearwire, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Alcatel (ALU), and Samsung have entered into a patent alliance.^[22] Sprint is working with Samsung, Motorola, and Nokia to manufacture handsets that are compatible with both CDMA and WiMAX.

By forming this joint venture Sprint is preempting its competitors AT&T and Verizon in the transition to a 4G offering. The two companies are investing in a technology called Long Term Evolution, but production of that network is not expected to start until 2010 at the earliest.^[23] Sprint is the only major service provider making such an investment in WiMAX, as many of its competitors have GSM based networks which, technologically, makes Long Term Evolution an easier transition. Sprint, however, has stated that its move to WiMAX does not mean it could not eventually move to Long Term Evolution.^[24] According to Gartner Inc., GSM networks will make up 89% of the market by 2011,^[25] making it very likely that in the battle between WiMAX and LTE, LTE will come out on top.

[edit] A Highly Regulated Environment

The telecommunications industry is a heavily regulated market. In the U.S., communications services are subject to regulation at the federal level by the FCC and in certain states by public utilities commissions, or PUCs. With regards to wireless, the FCC regulates the licensing, construction, operation, acquisition and sale of all wireless operations and wireless spectrum holdings. With regards to wireline, The Telecommunications Act of 1996 was designed to promote competition and eliminate legal and regulatory barriers for entry into local and long distance communications markets. It also required companies to allow resale of specified local services at wholesale rates, negotiate interconnection agreements, provide nondiscriminatory access to unbundled network elements, and allow co-location of interconnection equipment by competitors. It speaks for itself that in such a heavily regulated market, any significant regulatory change could have a major impact on the company or industry as a whole.

[edit] Comparison to Competitors

The table below compares Sprint Nextel on a number of key performance metrics to its main competitors. As is clear from the table, both AT&T and Verizon have seen customer growth remain strong while Sprint Nextel has struggled to add new customers because of an ineffective marketing campaign following the merger.^[26]

The comparison further shows that apart from the churn increase in 2006, churn rates for Sprint Nextel are the highest in the market because of its large subprime customer base and credit-related deactivations. While ARPU is by far the highest in the market for Sprint Nextel, driven by profitable post-paid customers from Nextel, the growth for this segment has decreased 50% since the merger.^[27]

^Pre-Paid, Post-Paid Customer Data ^^Market Share Data as of Q1 of 2007

Lastly, operating results are still below those of Verizon, the market leader with regards to this metric, as the integration after the merger is not yet complete. For the past several quarters, results have been negatively impacted by costs incurred to achieve synergies between Sprint and Nextel. Sprint has spent just under $1B on costs related to the merger in 2006 and 2007 combined.^[29] Such costs generally are not expected to be recurring in nature, and include costs associated with integrating back office systems, severance costs associated with the termination of the employment of certain employees, and lease and other contract termination costs.

[edit] References

1. ↑ Seekingalpha.com, Can Sprint Convince Customers to Stay, 8/6/08
2. ↑ SprintNextel 2007 10-K, pg.33
3. ↑ SprintNextel 2007 10-K, pg.38
4. ↑ SprintNextel 2007 10-K, pg.38
5. ↑ Morningstar, Sprint Nextel
6. ↑ ZDNet, Time to Boycott Sprint Over Its Customer Treatment, 7/7/07
7. ↑ Morningstar, Sprint Analyst Research
8. ↑ ^{8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3} Sprint Nextel Reports Third Quarter 2008 Results, November 7, 2008
9. ↑ ^{9.0 9.1 9.2} Subscriber Losses Hurt Sprint Nextel’s Earnings
10. ↑ Sprint Nextel 2007 10-K, pg.38
11. ↑ Verizon (VZ) Wikinvest Article
12. ↑ Wirelessindustrynews.org, US Wireless Subscriber Penetration over 75%
13. ↑ SprintNextel 2007 10-K, pg.39
14. ↑ Sprint Nextel 2007 10-K, pg.39
15. ↑ Sprint Nextel 2007 10-K, pg.38
16. ↑ Morningstar, Sprint Analyst Research
17. ↑ SprintNextel 2007 10-K, pg.38
18. ↑ Sprint Nextel 2007 10-K, pg.3
19. ↑ FCC Approves Sprint, Clearwire Merger >S CLWR, November 5, 2008
20. ↑ FCC Approves Two Big Wireless Mergers, November 5, 2008
21. ↑ FCC Approves Sprint-Clearwire WiMax Deal, November 5, 2008
22. ↑ Technology Giants form WiMax Patent Alliance
23. ↑ Sprint Forms WiMax JV with Clearwire
24. ↑ Computerworld.com, WiMAX vs. Long Term Evolution: Let the Battle Begin, May 14,2008
25. ↑ Computerworld.com, WiMAX vs. Long Term Evolution: Let the Battle Begin, May 14,2008
26. ↑ Morningstar, Sprint Analyst Research
27. ↑ Morningstar, Sprint Nextel
28. ↑ Chetan Sharma Consulting
29. ↑ Sprint Nextel 2007 10-K, pg.52